New England Journal of Medicine wrote: Volume 352:1138-1145 March 17, 2005 Number 11
A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century
S. Jay Olshansky, Ph.D., Douglas J. Passaro, M.D., Ronald C. Hershow, M.D., Jennifer Layden, M.P.H., Bruce A. Carnes, Ph.D., Jacob Brody, M.D., Leonard Hayflick, Ph.D., Robert N. Butler, M.D., David B. Allison, Ph.D., and David S. Ludwig, M.D., Ph.D.
ABSTRACT
Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.
Statement from Dr. Julie Gerberding, CDC Director, regarding Harvard School of Public Health
opinion poll on obesity attitudes from July 14.
(my emphasis)Telebriefing Transcript wrote: Overweight and Obesity: Clearing the Confusion
June 2, 2005
http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/transcripts/t050602.htm
But what we don't want is for this debate to continue to confuse people. We need to be absolutely explicitly clear about one thing: obesity and overweight are critically important health threats in this country. They have many adverse consequences, and let me just give some very specific facts that we do know.
First of all, we know that over the last 20 years, the rates of obesity and overweight in this country have soared astronomically. This graphic depicts the current profile of obesity among adults in the United States, and, as you can see, there are some states where more than 25 percent of the population is obese. Overall, in our country, 65 percent of adults are overweight, and about 30 percent of adults overall meet the criteria for obesity.
To me, even more frightening than that is the fact that 16 percent of the children in this country are obese. That number has increased by at least two times over the last 20 years.
We know that obesity and overweight are important health threats. People who are obese experience an increased rate of hypertension, diabetes, renal failure. They're at increased risk for cancers, including colon cancer, post-menopausal breast cancer, gall bladder cancer, and uterine cancer.
People who are obese and overweight have an increased risk of arthritis and mobility problems. People have sleep disturbances and breathing problems.
Another very scary fact for children--Type II Diabetes, which used to be known as adult onset diabetes, is now increasingly being diagnosed and adding to the cardiovascular risk profile of our children. We have many children now who are not only overweight, but they also have high blood pressure, lipid abnormalities, and diabetes--all of the factors that increase the risk among adults for cardiovascular disease and stroke.
We also know that obesity is linked to problems with child bearing, premature birth, learning disabilities, and other adverse outcomes for infants.
And finally, the economic estimates of the impact of obesity are astronomical. Approximately $52 billion are attributed to obesity in 1995, and by 2003, this figure had increased to $75 billion.
So we're dealing with a health threat that affects people at every stage of life. It is multi-dimensional in its impact, and it costs money.
So that's what we know.
What we don't know yet is the best methods for estimating the impact of obesity on death. And we are committed to learning more about that process, but you can expect that more studies will be coming forward and that more information will be made available as this research is conducted.
We also don't know what the long-term consequences of the obesity epidemic among our children will ultimately be on the health profile of our nation. As these children age and these health consequences accumulate, we may be seeing a very different profile of health status in our country, and that's a very, very worrisome outlook if we don't take steps now to fix it.
I would say the obesity epidemic exists. The diet industry has done nothing to help with obesity, and might even be one of its causes, because after dieting, people rebound, and gain some more weight. I wonder how many of the truly obese (as oppose to slightly overweight) have neve been on a diet, on what are the average and median numbers of diets they have been on.
O.