nicholasjh1 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:00 am
Lifeisabeach wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:26 am
SleepyPaolo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:10 am
Covid-19 is nothing to panic about, CPAP or not.
So far 9 Americans have died of it.
As of today 6,758 Americans have died through gun violence this year, and roughly 647,000 will die from heart disease this year.
I'd be more worried about not getting shot and eating well.
Hmmmm. Well one Harvard study is predicting that 40%-70% of the world population will contract the virus. And the WHO is reporting the death rate to be 3.4% of all infected individuals. So if that gets extrapolated... I'm borrowing all these numbers from a post elsewhere...
US Population = 350 million
# Infected at 40% = 140 million; @ 70% = 254 million
# Dead at 3.4%: 4.76 - 8.63 million
If that's overestimated by even as much as a factor of 10, that's still going to be a crazy high number. And the death rate alone I don't think is underestimated. Again, pulling from numbers posted elsewhere, the global death rate may be @ 3.4%, but the rate in China is 2% (assuming you trust their reporting at this stage), which means the rate elsewhere in the world is higher than 3.4% to make up for it. Here in the U.S., based on the number of confirmed cases, the death rate is 7.6% (9 out of 118 cases). To be honest, for the overwhelming majority of people, this thing will amount little more than a minor inconvenience... a few days with flu-like symptoms and downtime. But it's the elderly and people otherwise in poor health who are vulnerable that need to be worried and those of us who are not in poor health or elderly should be worried for them and be prepared to take appropriate precautions for their sake. When I catch this bug, I'll survive the experience, but if I pass it on to my in-laws, they may not.
That data is mostly correct, but it should say "118 confirmed cases" I guarantee the number is much higher then that and I wouldn't be surprised if it was 10x as high meaning that the death rate is more like .76%. I say this not just based on logic, but the fact that Japan did a broad spectrum test (140k) people, and that upped their confirmed cases by quite a bit... so much so in fact that their death rate is now .6%.
tl/dr you can't get the real death rate without testing everyone.
All fair points, though the same can be said for the flu. I had "flu-like symptoms" a few weeks ago and stayed home for the most part. I was never tested so what I had is pure speculation, but it doesn't contribute to the statistics for whatever it was as a consequence.
Another article I was reading yesterday said that the death rate for the flu is estimated to be 1% of all cases, though that's disputed and believed to be as low as 0.1%. I didn't read more into what the dispute was about, but I'd wager it was over un-tested individuals as you point out. So by that same logic, coronavirus is still likely more deadly by a significant margin.
What's driving the coronavirus in comparison to the flu is that it's a "new" strain that we don't know much about; we cannot adequately test for, treat, nor vaccinate against, especially in comparison to the flu and other viruses that have been around for hundreds or thousands of years. It spreads roughly twice as fast as the flu. Yes, not nearly as fast as other deadly plagues, but those are better understood because they have been around for a VERY long time and the quarantine efforts that have been successful at halting the spread are known and proven.
