OT:Is Global warming effecting your weather?

[Marietjie]

Is Global warming also effecting your weather?
From today Port Elizabeth area, South Africa is declared disaster area.
This (big) area is experiencing the worst drought in 130 years.
Port Elizabeth was known as the 'wet & windy city' of South Africa.
Nowadays it is nothing but a very dry and windy city!
On top of that we also experienced a VERY hot and humid summer.
Also in the news was that there is water for only 3 months !?!
Oh, we all feel so sad. I can tell you - drought is an awful situation.

[dave21]

There's so much hype about Global Warming. Sure I suspect we are adding only marginally to Global Warming if you compare the earth to several billion years ago because of all the industrial activity and green house gases we're giving off.

However, when you look at it they say "tides are rising", "droughts are getting worse", "floods are getting worse", "more tsunami's" etc etc etc. However, if you look back to the recorded start of the earth we had the Ice Age and various other stages where the earth changed. Was Global Warming the cause of the Ice Age? It's said that the earth also goes through a 100,000 year cycle of constant changes. So for me although I'll mockingly say "Global Warming" I don't think we're having a massive effect on the planet like some pundits suggest. Remember there was life before Humans on the earth and many of these creates died.

[LinkC]

You should have said something! We in the SE US would have gladly given you some of the snow, rain and flooding we've recently experienced.

If I jump to the same conclusion you did, I guess we're having "Global Cooling" on this hemisphere.

[snnnark]

Hi Marietjie, I'm sorry to hear this. There is definitely a change in weather in South Africa. Here in Middelburg MP we have had more rain than anyone can remember. We have not had to water the garden for the past year!

Whether this change is due to global warming or natural cycles it is very disturbing.

Hang in there and here's hoping for a wet winter!

Deon

[unadog]

If I jump to the same conclusion you did, I guess we're having "Global Cooling" on this hemisphere.

It is more correctly called "Climate Change."

The primary effect will be a disruption of existing systems. There seems to be a somewhat glib perception that we will engineer our way out of it. Look how well we handled that in New Orleans!

I am more tempeted to trust well regarded scientists - on both sides of the debate - than random politicians maneuvering for political gain and random online chatter (I don't mean here at this forum.) The truth is that most of us don't know that much about the details of current or historic climate change. We also have ample evidence that those who have a vested interest in any position are notoriously poor at objectively evaluating evidence, pro or con. Look at Iraq and WMD.

For a start on the historical impact of climate on life on earth I would recommend something like Richard Dawkins "The Ancestors Tale." After reading that 650 page introduction, I realize that the logical and mathematical modelling required to address these issues are beyond my sleep apnea degraded comprehension. In much the same way that my opinion on Global Macro Economics and the Impact of the Euro - say in addressing the current Greek crisis- are not particulary well imformed or relevent.

It is fascinating to look back at a major bottleneck event that occured in human history with the eruption of Mt Toba, which caused an immediate ice age 70,000 years ago. The entire human population at that time was reduced to only about 15,000 humans living in Central Africa:

A new hypothesis about recent human evolution suggests that we came very close to extinction because of a "volcanic winter" that occurred 71,000 years ago.
Some scientists estimate that there may have been as few as 15,000 humans alive at one time.

The volcanic winter lasted about six years. It was followed by 1,000 years of the coldest Ice Age on record.


Absolutely fascinating stuff!

Cheers!
Michael

[mikee]

In Western Oregon we are 14" below are normal rainfall for the year

[roster]

One thing for sure, all of us will die within 100 years.

[LinkC]

One thing for sure, all of us will die within 100 years.

Nope! I got a plan to live forever. So far it's working...

[JohnBFisher]

... One thing for sure, all of us will die within 100 years. ...

So, Rooster, regardless of Global Warming, you seem to predict personal cooling for each of us?

[roster]

... One thing for sure, all of us will die within 100 years. ...

So, Rooster, regardless of Global Warming, you seem to predict personal cooling for each of us?

Maybe for you John, but numerous people keep proposing a major, major heat wave for me after death.

[montana]

All I know is in the end the earth will win....

[jasper]

unadog makes a lot of good points. Major climate cycles are more in the order of 10s of thousands of years. Within those cycles, there's sure to be wide swings one way or the other on a shorter term basis. I don't honestly know enough to take a position on whether there's a major long term effect going on right now. I do wholeheartedly agree that we ought to take all reasonable and prudent steps to stop dumping so much pollution into the atmosphere and the watersheds. It just makes good sense. For a good perspective try reading Michael Crichton's State of Fear. Agree or disagree, it makes some good thought provoking arguments.

[dsm]

Another 0.2 cents worth on this topic ...

> Who are the IPCC ?
- http://www.ipcc.ch/

> What are the key point(s) that the IPCC is making ...
- Humans are responsible for a massive increase in CO2 in the atmosphere which based on (the now discredited) 'hockey stick' calculations of a pair of US scientist, was going to cause a massive and rapid global warming that would melt the polar caps, melt glaciers (such as in the Himalayas), raise the oceans & flood low lying islands.
- That we humans can reverse this. One solution being by handing over billions of $s in compensation to third world countries (as demanded by them at Copenhagen)
- That all countries should raise taxes to pay for more efficient energy. One tax being the carbon credits tax.

> I have no trouble believing in global warming (and global cooling followed by warming followed by cooling .... been happening for at least 400Million of the past 650 million years)

> The worlds oceans in historically recent times (when humans were reasonably well established) were at least 70 feet higher than they are to day. This was est to be 14,200 Years ago. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 072043.htm

> Was global warming the cause ? - much evidence says so !

> Were humans responsible for the 70 ft ocean rise 14,200 years ago ? - no !

> Are we in a period of Global warming now ? - some scientists are sure of it, others think we are on the edge of a significant period of cooling (Solar cycle 24)
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009 ... iction.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
http://aftermathnews.wordpress.com/2008 ... ears-time/ <<<=== A good read


> Is global warming shown to be influenced by human activity ? - this is easy to believe but not necessarily proven beyond doubt !. There are many factors affecting global climate fluctuations.

> Is human triggered CO2 the 'hockey stick' trigger for a massive & rapid global warming ? - The IPCC's 'hockey stick' report is so discredited it now has few legs (google IPCC Hockey Stick)

> Is the IPCC a totally impartial scientific body ? - Nope it is a political body set up as part of the UN and is selectively using scientific reports & data to make political points!

> Is the point that the IPCC is making something we really should be getting excited about ? - well we can't ignore the issues nor can we be confident they have all the facts too many of their most extreme claims have been discredited.

> Should we humans be doing anything about the way we use fossilized energy & cut down forests ? - absolutely, and that is the heart of one practical message from the IPCC and perhaps the best good they will achieve, but, the IPCC is on thin ice if their conferences insist we developed nations need to pay billions of dollars to under-developed nations to compensate them for the perception that we developed nations are solely responsible for the current global warming. That remains open to conjecture. Too many of those under-developed nations would LOVE to be given $billions no matter what the reason or excuse & so it is not at all surprising that they would want to see developed nations blamed for global warming and that they would use their extensive voting power at the conferences to swing things their way.

*******************************


I am preparing for a future IPCC report that warns us of how developed nations are solely responsible for the global cooling that has suddenly occurred when it comes (all memories of the great global warming scare having faded away), as their political objectives won't change no matter what the current scare is

DSM

[Goofproof]

The Earth has been changing every since it was created, this will continue to happen no matter how many stupid humans think they can control it. All they can do is throw money at it, and maybe make it worse. Jim

[Wulfman]

I'm happy to report that out in this area of the Rocky Mountains, after 21 years of sub-normal moisture, the last year or two have been approaching more like what I remember the years prior to 1988 to have been. I'm waiting to see what the next month or so will have in store as far as moisture (mountain snow pack) goes, but so far it's been looking like things are turning around.
It sounds like all around the world, there have been more "climate shifts" over the past couple of decades.
A few decades or even hundreds of years is insignificant when one considers the amount of time the earth has had forms of life on it.
It's curious that none of the scientists seem to have suggested planting more trees (to replace the ones that have been cut down for lumber or burned in the rain forests over the last hundred years or so) to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere. They keep coming up with other screwy ways to remove it.
I'm not a believer in man-caused global warming, but I do believe humans could have been better stewards of this planet.
After all, it's the only thing we have to live on.


Den