babydinosnoreless wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:08 am
How do the cheat when they are out at sea ? I get that the news media are alarmists but this story worries me, if it is true.
I took a quick read through the story and I processed it along with some other stories I have heard about people testing positive that are strictly quarantined and wonder how they come up positive.
Number one...the testing isn't perfect by a long shot yet.
It's riddled with false positives and false negatives.
Folks...I hate to be the bearer of bad news but any lab test can have false positives and false negatives for any number of reasons. They ain't perfect especially when the test itself has been developed in a hurry.
I have heard of one US ball player in Japan who gets a positive test one day...negative test another day...and has to have 2 negative tests to play ball but then when tested the 3rd time...positive again...and then the next day negative...and next day positive. That's scientifically impossible...points to testing problems..
similar situation with a US ball player here in the US and the bubble they are in for trying to get baseball up and running here. He tested positive and honest to god couldn't figure out where he got it because he hadn't broke the bubble...then he got a negative test and then next day positive...then finally got 2 consecutive negatives. No symptoms at any time of being ill...Testing problem again.
Number two.... as to being out at sea for 35 days with no exposure and then coming up sick or testing positive....if a person has symptoms and they test positive...they got it for sure. No way around that.
Someone on that boat had it though and was an asymptomatic carrier. This story is actually quite believable to me. Medically and scientifically speaking...entirely possible. The person who got sick later most likely just hadn't been in close enough contact with the carrier of the virus until later on in the trip. Or maybe asymptomatic carrier number one...gave it to one guy who also became an asymptomatic carrier who then exposed a 3rd or 4th guy who finally showed the symptoms because he got sick.
This is why asymptomatic carriers scare the hell out of me and likely explains a lot of the spread of the virus. People have it and don't know it and share it with others who might also be asymptomatic and then they share it and down the line they share it with someone who finally get symptoms and become really ill with it. We have no way to know how many carriers it went through before it hits someone who actually shows symptoms. On a boat at sea...it is relatively close quarters for sure but you never know exactly when one person gets enough exposure from someone carrying it without symptoms to finally cause the virus to take hold and cause symptoms.
And we don't know how many carriers it went through before it made it to the person who got sick.
There is so much we don't know about this virus and are still learning and it can change as we learn new stuff. It's the way of a novel virus. Expect knowledge to change....it would bug me more if it didn't. The latest potential alarming news is the COVID 19 may only give short term immunity. God I hope this doesn't end up being the final new knowledge. This is all very new and it will be a while before they know more but if that's the case it's going to put a big monkey wrench in the vaccine potential for long lasting immunity.
Did you know the common cold is caused by a coronavirus...we catch a cold and are immune from it for a few weeks or months but next year we can catch that same virus again if exposed again. The body doesn't develop long term immunity to a lot of these viruses. Short term yes....and they can mutate which opens up a new can of worms. Even if we had immunity from its first form...after it mutates a little we may not have so much immunity to it. It's why we can all catch a cold every year or multiple times in a year....we don't have long term immunity. It's a big friggin mess if you look at it from the science side of things (which is what I do). I don't need alarmist news to scare me...I can get scared enough on my own just from reading the real science papers behind this crap.
Good to see that you are willing to wear a mask when you have to go out and can't keep a safe distance from people.
I personally believe there is more protection to us when we do that than people might think and I want to take every precaution possible. I may not be successful but I will have at least tried. So I look at it as protecting others in case I am a carrier and I also look at it as protect me as well. It's not perfect but it is sure better than nothing.
COVID 19....is a new and particularly easy spreading virus that is very nasty for some people if they get sick with it.
We are still learning about it and likely will be for the next couple of years. Facts won't be set in stone for quite some time.
So just accept it when the facts change as the scientists learn new things. It is the way it goes for new novel viruses of any kind...we have to go through the tedious learning steps and it does take a lot of time.
