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Where reopening is working

We journalists don’t always pay enough attention to good news. So I want to highlight some this morning: Across much of the United States and Europe, the coronavirus has been spreading less rapidly than many people feared.

Yes, the caseload is growing in some places, and they’re rightly getting a lot of attention. But the full story is more complex. Over the past six weeks — as communities have started to reopen, Americans have flocked to beaches and lakes and European schools have reopened — the number of new cases has continued falling in many places.

Across the Northeast and Midwest of the U.S., they’re down more than 50 percent, and often much more, since May 1. Nationwide, weekly deaths have fallen for six weeks in a row. And Europe “seems to have turned a corner,” Caitlin Rivers of Johns Hopkins University says.

How could this be?

I put that question to public health experts, and they gave two main answers. One, the virus spreads much less easily outdoors than indoors. “Summer — being outside, warmer weather, humidity — seems to help, and we may have underestimated how much it’s helped,” Ashish Jha, the incoming dean of Brown University School of Public Health, told me.

Two, many people are taking more precautions than they were in February and March. They’re wearing masks, remaining six feet apart, and being careful about what they touch. “Even absent top-down health interventions” — like lockdowns — “people want to keep themselves safe,” Rivers said.

The combination appears to have eliminated most “superspreader events,” like parties, concerts and restaurant meals, where multiple people get sick. Such events may account for 80 percent of all transmissions, research suggests. (Read this Times Op-Ed for more.)

I recognize that this is a somewhat dangerous message. Transmission rates in the U.S. are higher than they need to be, and they have begun rising again in parts of the South and West. In Arizona, where the governor has played down the virus and hospitals are filling up, the situation looks especially bad. But many other places are showing what a responsible and effective reopening looks like.

One crucial caveat is that the virus will outlast the summer — everywhere. During the 1918-19 flu, transmission rates fell in the warmer months, only to soar again in the fall. “People thought it was over,” as Apoorva Mandavilli, a science reporter at The Times, said, “and stopped taking precautions.”

NYT 6/11/2020 briefing

raisedfist wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:30 am

Controlling one's own environment and lifestyle is a great way to stay safe. I get my haircut at a salon as a guy because they are appointment only, the staff and customers wear masks, and the chairs are spread out. I went to a local hardware store and many people were not wearing masks, so I started going to a different one. The grocery store I go to has practically everyone wearing a mask and keeping distance from one another. I have built in this cautiousness to my routine without being fearful, and I still engage in conversation with random strangers at the store from time to time. You can live your life more or less normally, and still for the most part take all the necessary precautions to stay safe. Hiding out in your closet is just not sustainable IMHO.

ChicagoGranny wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:41 am

raisedfist wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:30 am

Controlling one's own environment and lifestyle is a great way to stay safe. I get my haircut at a salon as a guy because they are appointment only, the staff and customers wear masks, and the chairs are spread out. I went to a local hardware store and many people were not wearing masks, so I started going to a different one. The grocery store I go to has practically everyone wearing a mask and keeping distance from one another. I have built in this cautiousness to my routine without being fearful, and I still engage in conversation with random strangers at the store from time to time. You can live your life more or less normally, and still for the most part take all the necessary precautions to stay safe. Hiding out in your closet is just not sustainable IMHO.

Gramps and I follow this approach. However, this only covers retail activities. We are accustomed to and need lengthy social interaction four or five times per week. Without it, we both feel like we are doing the "unsustainable hiding out in our closet."

raisedfist wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:56 am

Ah, I've never had a problem with limited social interaction. Moreso, just not being able to do all the things I want to do. If anything, COVID-19 has given me a good excuse not to interact with those I'd rather not.

raisedfist wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:56 am

Ah, I've never had a problem with limited social interaction.

ChicagoGranny wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:02 pm

raisedfist wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:56 am

Ah, I've never had a problem with limited social interaction.

Is there a switch I can throw?

jnk... wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:23 pm

. . . What would have worked a lot better for New York is if it had been ahead of the game with stay-at-home, as Arizona now has the chance to be. . . .

jnk... wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:51 pm

jnk... wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:23 pm

. . . What would have worked a lot better for New York is if it had been ahead of the game with stay-at-home, as Arizona now has the chance to be. . . .

Oh well. Chance officially blown.

babydinosnoreless wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:31 am

This surge is from the riots 14 days ago.

babydinosnoreless wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:31 am

we are well prepared and have plenty of ventilators and hospital beds despite what some of the media is saying.

Whale Road wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:00 am

babydinosnoreless wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:31 am

This surge is from the riots 14 days ago.

That's a political statement that is not backed by science. Covid-19 and other infectious diseases grow exponentially, not linearly. The number of cases seems small, and suddenly there is a major outbreak. We are seeing surges in many states due to failure to protect over Memorial Day weekend. Surges from the Floyd protests may follow.

babydinosnoreless wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:31 am

we are well prepared and have plenty of ventilators and hospital beds despite what some of the media is saying.

How comforting is that statement to a person on a ventilator in an ICU bed? For many, COVID-19 is a horrible disease that causes physical suffering, mental suffering, and in some cases, long-term damage. Others suffer and die.

Whale Road wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:00 am

babydinosnoreless wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:31 am

This surge is from the riots 14 days ago.

That's a political statement that is not backed by science. Covid-19 and other infectious diseases grow exponentially, not linearly. The number of cases seems small, and suddenly there is a major outbreak. We are seeing surges in many states due to failure to protect over Memorial Day weekend. Surges from the Floyd protests may follow.

babydinosnoreless wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:31 am

we are well prepared and have plenty of ventilators and hospital beds despite what some of the media is saying.

How comforting is that statement to a person on a ventilator in an ICU bed? For many, COVID-19 is a horrible disease that causes physical suffering, mental suffering, and in some cases, long-term damage. Others suffer and die.